When numbers are misleading

When the new month rolls around, there’s a rush to comment on housing values and sales activity.

However we at PropertyESP have decided to outline why calling the market, a few days post month, can sometimes be somewhat rash.

Case in point, we recently took a look at Maylands sales for the month of May 2018 – reported as settled as of 30 June 2018. As can we seen - you would have been led to believe that there were 2 house sales and 3 unit sales.

But if in fact, you had decided to wait until 10th September to report on the settled sales for Maylands enacted in May, the data would be substantially different with 9 house sales (not 2) and 11 unit sales (not 3). Furthermore average sales has risen for a house from $547,500 to $630,000 and fallen from $320,000 to $315,000 for a unit.

Looking at settled house sales for May as at the end of each month from June 2018.

And unit sales over the same period.

So why do you have this variation in price between properties in suburbs within such a short time frame? Because the median price depends on what is being sold – so if a number of one-bedroom flats are sold, then the median price will naturally be lower. And the same for the sale of premium 4 bedroom homes, with regards to inflating the median price.

Data can change the entire forecast for an area – and that is why you have to make sure you are looking at the entire picture!


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